EconomicsKenya

Will the Kenyan inflation rate fall below 5% by Dec 31?

62% chance+1.2%

This market resolves YES if Kenya's year-on-year inflation is below 5% on the reference date.

KES 1.8M totalLive
62%38%
StatusLive
VolumeKES 1.8M
ResolvesDec 31, 2025
SourceKenya National Bureau of Statistics

EconomicsMonetary Policy

Will the CBK cut rates before Q4?

52% chance+2%

Resolves YES if the Central Bank of Kenya reduces its policy rate at least once before end of Q3 2025.

KES 650K totalLive
52%48%
StatusLive
VolumeKES 650K
ResolvesSep 30, 2025
SourceCentral Bank of Kenya

PoliticsKenya

Will the Finance Bill 2025 pass without major amendments?

34% chance-1%

Resolves YES if the Finance Bill 2025 is passed by the National Assembly without major amendments as defined in the market rules.

KES 1.2M totalLive
34%66%
StatusLive
VolumeKES 1.2M
ResolvesJun 30, 2025
SourceNational Assembly

FXKenya

Will the shilling strengthen against the dollar by end of Q1?

45% chance-3%

Resolves YES if the KES/USD rate (CBK official) is stronger at end of Q1 2025 than the reference rate.

KES 1.1M totalLive
45%55%
StatusLive
VolumeKES 1.1M
ResolvesMar 31, 2025
SourceCBK FX rates

SportsKenya

Will Gor Mahia win the FKF Premier League 2024/25?

72% chance+5%

Resolves YES if Gor Mahia are crowned FKF Premier League champions for the 2024/25 season.

KES 890K totalLive
72%28%
StatusLive
VolumeKES 890K
ResolvesJun 30, 2025
SourceFKF official standings

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